So, I went with conventional wisdom and started looking at other used cars with a good track record -- ie. Honda and Toyota certified. What I discovered is that the depreciation on these cars was not too substantial. For instance, given my estimate that I may drive 25k miles/year I found these prices online:
NADA Kelley
2007 0k $19,510 --- $20,105 ----
2006 25k $19,175 $ 335 $18,590 $1515
2005 50k $16,062 $3113 $15,235 $3355
2004 75k $13,925 $2137 $14,060 $1175
2003 100k $11,550 $2375 $12,275 $1785
With the exception of the difference in price when passing the 36,000 mile warranty the depreciation appears relatively constant. Looking at vehicles online at autotrader also confirmed this trend. This led me to look at new cars instead.
Next I considered a hybrid vehicle. The tax credit is down to $750 but I drive a heck of a lot of miles, so looked at gas savings. Things may change, I may start carpooling, I may get to telecommute a day a week, I may move closer to work, gas prices will change, so with all these variables considered I wanted to do a price sensitivity analysis. The Civic EX is rated 30mpg city, 40 highway. They Civic Hybrid is 40 and 50mpg respectively. I was able to get the Civic EX for Invoice price, but the Hybrids are in higher demand and would have been closer to MSRP. That is a difference of $4645 - $750 tax credit = $3895. How much would I save in fuel costs?
Well, my manager has a hybrid and gets only 43 mpg. Reviews online at Car and Driver also suggest that it is really difficult to actually achieve 50mpg. So given my driving parameters of 110 miles/day, 5 days/week, 46 weeks/year = 21,850 miles. Assuming an average gas price of $4.00, 38mpg on the civic, 43mpg on the hybrid, I could save $22.29/month in gas or $267/year.
I'm all for doing what's good for the environment, but even with the ridiculous amount of driving I do and escalating fuel costs it could take 14 years to justify the additional cost.
So, what did I get? I got a blue one.
1 comment:
From a Wired article today:
"According to a formula devised by Edmunds, it would take nearly 10 years to recoup the extra costs after buying a 2007 Mercury Mariner Hybrid, up from 6.6 according to the old mileage ratings. For the 2007 Honda Accord and Honda Civic hybrids it takes 14.5 and 6.5 years, respectively."
http://www.wired.com/cars/futuretransport/news/2007/05/hybrid_mpg
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